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ICC to use enrollment study for planning
By Paul Crossman
A recently completed enrollment study commissioned by the Ichabod Crane Central School District has shown that enrollment at the school in the coming years will continue to decline, though according to Superintendent James Dexter, not as sharply as they initially expected. Dexter, along with the Ichabod School Board, plan to use the projections given in the study to help make better long-term plans for various aspects of the district which might be affected by changing enrollment.
“I think we are pleased to see that [the enrollment won’t decline as sharply],” Dexter told the Register-Star. “We learned a lot from the study.”
The study itself uses enrollment trends in the past and present to estimate how enrollment will look in the future. It also takes into account student programming, housing market demographics, and employment climate and conditions in an effort to make the future projection as accurate as possible, which in turn can help the school district make better-educated decisions about the future.
In the Historical enrollment statistics for the district, enrollment has decreased each year from nearly 2,300 students in 2004 to 2,070 in 2009. There are three projections- high, medium and low- and they all reflect this trend. Based on the study the school will continue to have a decreased enrollment for the coming years through 2019.
The baseline low-range projection puts enrollment at 2,015 students in 2010, moving steadily downward to 1,629 in 2019. The mid-range projection starts with 2,005 students enrolled in 2010, but decreases at a slower rate, ending with 1,809 students in 2019. The high range projection begins with 2,010 students in 2010, and only decreases slightly each year, staying almost even from 2014 to 2019, and ending with 1,889 enrolled students.
Dexter says he first thought an enrollment study might be a good idea after seeing a trend of decreasing enrollment in previous years. Every October, he said, the school district checks the official enrollment for that school year, and after preparing a report for the School Board, it seemed like a good idea to see if the trend would continue into the future before anymore long-term planning was done.
“I felt that before we did any kind of additional long-term facilities or budget planning, we needed to see what our long-term enrollment looked like, and what the implications are going to be,” said Dexter, adding that they have been doing a lot in the way of long-term planning, so that an enrollment study made even more sense.
One of the more positive aspects of the study, according to Dexter, is that it shows that Ichabod has a higher enrollment rate in Kindergarten than birth rate for the same year, which means that, for whatever reason, people are moving into the area and putting their children into the Ichabod school system.
“We were pleased to see that people find this area attractive,” he said.
Dexter says that though the school board still has to decide how they plan to incorporate the information in the study, one possibility is that the Board could put together a committee to assist the school in long term planning. Such a committee would probably contain everyone from community members, to teachers, to board members.
The study will be important in playing into the future development of the school, especially in areas like staffing, facilities usage, and programs offered. Dexter also said that the projection can help give the district a better idea of how many elective courses and activities they may be able to offer in the future.
“I just think that doing the enrollment study has been a good thing for us,” he said. “It’s good to have some objective data to share with the community and to base our decisions on. We look forward to getting the data out to the community.
To reach reporter Paul Crossman call 518-828-1616, ext. 2266, or e-mail pcrossman@registerstar.com.
“I think we are pleased to see that [the enrollment won’t decline as sharply],” Dexter told the Register-Star. “We learned a lot from the study.”
The study itself uses enrollment trends in the past and present to estimate how enrollment will look in the future. It also takes into account student programming, housing market demographics, and employment climate and conditions in an effort to make the future projection as accurate as possible, which in turn can help the school district make better-educated decisions about the future.
In the Historical enrollment statistics for the district, enrollment has decreased each year from nearly 2,300 students in 2004 to 2,070 in 2009. There are three projections- high, medium and low- and they all reflect this trend. Based on the study the school will continue to have a decreased enrollment for the coming years through 2019.
The baseline low-range projection puts enrollment at 2,015 students in 2010, moving steadily downward to 1,629 in 2019. The mid-range projection starts with 2,005 students enrolled in 2010, but decreases at a slower rate, ending with 1,809 students in 2019. The high range projection begins with 2,010 students in 2010, and only decreases slightly each year, staying almost even from 2014 to 2019, and ending with 1,889 enrolled students.
Dexter says he first thought an enrollment study might be a good idea after seeing a trend of decreasing enrollment in previous years. Every October, he said, the school district checks the official enrollment for that school year, and after preparing a report for the School Board, it seemed like a good idea to see if the trend would continue into the future before anymore long-term planning was done.
“I felt that before we did any kind of additional long-term facilities or budget planning, we needed to see what our long-term enrollment looked like, and what the implications are going to be,” said Dexter, adding that they have been doing a lot in the way of long-term planning, so that an enrollment study made even more sense.
One of the more positive aspects of the study, according to Dexter, is that it shows that Ichabod has a higher enrollment rate in Kindergarten than birth rate for the same year, which means that, for whatever reason, people are moving into the area and putting their children into the Ichabod school system.
“We were pleased to see that people find this area attractive,” he said.
Dexter says that though the school board still has to decide how they plan to incorporate the information in the study, one possibility is that the Board could put together a committee to assist the school in long term planning. Such a committee would probably contain everyone from community members, to teachers, to board members.
The study will be important in playing into the future development of the school, especially in areas like staffing, facilities usage, and programs offered. Dexter also said that the projection can help give the district a better idea of how many elective courses and activities they may be able to offer in the future.
“I just think that doing the enrollment study has been a good thing for us,” he said. “It’s good to have some objective data to share with the community and to base our decisions on. We look forward to getting the data out to the community.
To reach reporter Paul Crossman call 518-828-1616, ext. 2266, or e-mail pcrossman@registerstar.com.
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