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What happens when the oil’s gone?

Hudson-Catskill Newspapers

HILLSDALE — A discussion group that calls itself “Socrates in Hillsdale” held its monthly meeting Saturday, and the topic at hand was what might happen when the world runs out of oil, as well as what should be done in the meantime.

“If you are concerned about your children, you have to be concerned about the future,” said Reiner Kopp, who was the facilitator of this month’s discussion.

“No matter what, we’re going to run out of oil,” he said. “The question is — when?”

Kopp said the need for oil is greater than production at the present time, before asking how those in attendance whether they believed the world would run out of oil. All four attendees raised their hands.

According to Kopp’s research, one barrel of oil is equal to 23,000 hours of manpower. “23,000 hours of manpower could produce a lot of food,” he said. “One barrel is doing that.”

Riva Dunaief said she did believe the world would run out of oil, but she added that she also has faith that mankind will discover another form of power.

Kopp said there’s an estimated 40 to 50 years left until the last drop of oil is used up. He also pointed out that one of oil’s values is that it can transport people, something other forms of energy do not do.

“Transportation is based on oil,” he said, adding that from its source to the kitchen, food travels an average of 1,500 miles in the United States.

Florence Rabinowitz noted that the cost of food is also rising.

“Each of us has to learn how to conserve and do with less,” Joshua Horwitt said.

“No matter who is going to be president, its going to be important to convince the public to drive less, and get rid of big cars,” Kopp said. “Consumption is so ingrained in us.”

Inge Etabad, who formed the group, suggested that more effort should be put into developing alternate energy sources, such as powering cars with hydrogen. Kopp explained that the process of splitting hydrogen from water and refueling the car both involve expensive equipment.

Horwitt felt that the infrastructure for electric cars was somewhat in place, and that they would be ideal for cities because they can go approximately 100 miles on a charge, with no fuel.

“We agree that an oil-based economy is not sustainable,” Kopp said. He questioned how the nation and world’s capitalist economy would react to people consuming less. “Capitalism is based on constant growth,” he said. With no oil, there would be no driving force to increase production.

“Everything is built on oil,” Kopp said. Another important issue is retirement funds that are invested in the stock market. “If the country is not growing anymore, what happens to the stocks?”

Kopp also predicted that when the world was down to its last drops of oil, it is likely there will be wars over who should claim it.

Dunaief felt that people would adapt to consuming less. “During (the second world) war, everyone adjusted to rationing,” she said.

This may be difficult, because, as Rabinowtiz pointed out, there is no local public transportation. “What do people do if they have to get into town with no other transportation?” she asked. “My car is my lifeline.”

When the discussion returned to renewable sources of energy, Kopp said there is currently no good solution. Both solar panels and wind turbines are quite expensive to make, though Horwitt said that solar costs have come down a bit.

“The amount of energy distributed by a single gas station in a single day is equivalent to the energy produced by four Manhattan-sized blocks of solar panels,” Kopp said.

Horwitt also pointed out that electric companies have mixed feelings on solar panels, because residents don’t have to pay for energy — they produce their own.

Etabad is interested in finding out the social implications of running out of oil. “It means a complete change of the paradigms of our lives,” she said. “We need to not just change, but have a different outlook on life.”

The discussion didn’t result in any definitive ideas or solutions, but all agreed that it would likely be up to the next generation to solve the problem.

“Think about your grandchildren and the world they’re going to be in,” Kopp said. “It’s terrible.”

“We’re still living in a pretty good time, but the problem is coming up,” he continued. “Unfortunately, it’s coming up quickly.”

The “Socrates in Hillsdale” discussion group is held from 2 to 3:30 p.m. on the third Saturday of every month at the Roe-Jan Community Library in Hillsdale. August’s discussion will revolve around instinct and intuition.

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